The nearby chart (click on it to enlarge) shows an x/y scatter plot for average passenger journey vs. the average number of seats per aircraft over the last ten years. This data is taken from the RAA website. I simply did some clever analysis of the data and laid it out in the chart (the latest data available on the RAA website is through 2008; I suspect they will be releasing 2009 shortly). As you can see, there has been a steady upward progression in both the average passenger journey and the average number of seats on regional aircraft. The dots represent the intersection of both of the data elements and I labeled them by the corresponding year. I then plotted a trend line through the points to provide a perspective as to where the data would track if history is any indication of the future.
There are a couple takeaways from the chart: while the upward progression is apparent, there is some 'bunching' of the data for the years 2005 through 2008. In my opinion this suggests that regionals are now at close to their limits in terms of the metrics on the chart with both of these dimensions being a function of aircraft size limits as determined by pilot scope agreements, i.e., the regionals have bumped up against numbers of regional aircraft permitted and the size of those aircraft which in turn limits the average passenger journey. This is rather important to the other takeaway from the chart: the forecast trend line will only be realized if there is an open market not limited by scope or at the least, there is additional liberalization of aircraft size that regionals can deploy.
This is a major issue that the regional airline industry can't control but significantly effects their growth prospects going forward. Will there be scope relief in the future that can fulfill the forecast trend line? How will that manifest itself and how will it occur?
There are some hints to this issue out there now, but that will have to wait for another time.
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