About this time of each month, I will try to post and cover the latest passenger traffic results from IATA (International Air Transport Association, an airline member organization comprised of 230 airlines worldwide). IATA provides statistics from its member airlines each month (based on the airline's filings with the organization). The filings are for international passenger and cargo traffic and does not contain any domestic traffic.
The chart nearby (click on the chart to enlarge it) shows traffic percentage change by month (year over year) for the period beginning in January 2000 through the latest period, March of 2010. As shown in the chart, international traffic has returned to its growth profile after falling significantly during the worldwide (or almost worldwide) recession (technically, the U.S. is still in a recession as the National Bureau of Economic Research, http://www.nber.org, who kind of decides the start or end of a recession after we come out (or go in), has not yet determined when the current recession ended, if it has (I kind of think it ended in the latter part of 2009 or the very beginning of 2010, but we'll see). I highlighted the areas of previous downturns in traffic with the significant events that affected passenger travel. A couple things are apparent: 1) the drop off in traffic during a significant economic event is rapid and similarly, the increase in traffic is also rapid. In fact, the slope of these changes is about the same from one downturn or upturn to another; 2) the extent of the trough and peaks are also about the same (although the current period may climb somewhat further in the next couple of months).
As the data shows, we are on an upturn. Passenger traffic changes are a lead indicator of airline profitability and are lagged somewhat with gross domestic product (more on this in a future post). With some economic turmoil now occurring in Europe (Greece, Spain, et al), we will have to wait to see of any 'knock-on' effects that may spoil the current rebound in traffic.
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